Research · 02
Options Theory
An option is a claim on the behaviour of a price, not on its level. Almost every expensive mistake made with options comes from treating it as the second thing.
What a premium is made of
The decomposition into intrinsic and extrinsic value, what each part is compensating whom for, and why the strike is not the break-even. The arithmetic that decides whether being right about direction is enough — usually it is not.
The greeks as a system
Delta, gamma, vega and theta as a connected set rather than four separate numbers: how a position's exposures change as the underlying moves and time passes, and why the risk you are carrying at expiry is rarely the risk you put on.
Where the standard models break
The assumptions behind the canonical pricing framework — continuous trading, constant volatility, frictionless hedging — and the observable ways real markets violate each. The skew is not a defect in the market; it is the market disagreeing with the model.
Implied volatility
What the surface is: a set of prices restated in a common unit, not a forecast. What the term structure and the smile record about expectation and about the cost of hedging, and the gap between implied and subsequently realised volatility.
Decay, properly
Why time value does not decay linearly, how decay interacts with the convexity you bought it for, and the conditions under which a position that was right about the move still loses money.
Structure, not selection
How multi-leg positions redistribute exposure across price, time and volatility — and what each one costs to hold, hedge and exit, which is the part that decides the outcome and the part usually left out.
Boundary
As with the other area: the subject and the questions are public, the techniques, parameters, instruments and horizons under study are not. See the publication policy.
Not a page of strategies to run. There are no positions recommended anywhere on this site.